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DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Thursday, February 20, 2020 1:56PM CST
By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter

OMAHA (DTN) -- The prices of most retail fertilizers remain lower than at the same time last month, although three prices saw small upticks, according to prices tracked by DTN for the second week of February 2020.

Only one fertilizer had a noteworthy price decline, which DTN considers a move of 5% or more. The average retail DAP price declined 5% and had an average price of $413/ton.

Four other fertilizers had a minor price decline from the previous month. MAP had an average price of $435/ton, down $9; potash $373/ton, down $2; 10-34-0 $464/ton, down $6; and UAN28 $235/ton, down $2.

The remaining three fertilizers also had minor price increases compared to last month. Urea had an average price of $361/ton, up $4; anhydrous $490/ton, up $3; and UAN32 $277/ton, up $2.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.42/lb.N and UAN32 $0.43/lb.N.

Fertilizer company stocks took a tumble last week as forecasts for lower fertilizer prices lowered analysts' projections. Dow Jones reported Citi downgraded CF Industries, Mosaic and Nutrien stocks to neutral from buy and slashed price targets on shares.

The Citi analysts say price weakness, despite significant supply discipline in phosphate and potash, along with a flattening nitrogen cost curve has them moving to the sidelines. Citi cut its target prices to $43 from $56 for CF, to $21 from $29 for Mosaic and to $47 from $61 for Nutrien.

They added that FMC, supported by its research and development pipeline and patent protection, remains their top pick in the ag space, followed by Corteva, according to Dow Jones.

Retail fertilizers are now all lower in price from a year ago. MAP and DAP are both now 19% lower, anhydrous is 18% less expensive, both UAN28 and UAN32 are 13% lower, urea is 11% less expensive, potash is 3% lower and 10-34-0 is 1% less expensive from last year at this time.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Feb 11-15 2019 512 537 385 405
Mar 11-15 2019 510 534 386 402
Apr 8-12 2019 505 532 387 404
May 6-10 2019 501 527 391 418
Jun 3-7 2019 497 527 392 434
Jul 1-5, 2019 498 532 392 432
Jul 29-Aug 2 2019 494 530 393 428
Aug 26-30 2019 491 494 387 412
Sep 23-27, 2019 479 475 384 404
Oct 21-25, 2019 465 473 383 404
Nov 18-22 2019 456 466 381 387
Dec 16-20 2019 444 460 378 377
Jan 13-17 2020 433 444 375 357
Feb 10-14 2020 413 435 373 361
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Feb 11-15 2019 470 596 271 318
Mar 11-15 2019 469 596 269 318
Apr 8-12 2019 481 592 271 317
May 6-10 2019 487 595 267 310
Jun 3-7 2019 487 591 271 314
Jul 1-5, 2019 482 584 276 317
Jul 29-Aug 2 2019 486 580 272 320
Aug 26-30 2019 470 528 256 290
Sep 23-27, 2019 471 511 254 289
Oct 21-25, 2019 471 507 251 291
Nov 18-22 2019 472 496 245 284
Dec 16-20 2019 469 487 239 276
Jan 13-17 2020 470 487 237 275
Feb 10-14 2020 464 490 235 277

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(KD/CZ)


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